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		MoneyTec = Traders=20 Community > Private = Groups > Mechanic= al=20 Discretion
Mechanical Discretion=20

Welcome,=20 Jetheat.
You last visited: 06-02-2006 at 08:17
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27-03-2005, 03:35	= #161
rwilliams vbmenu_register("postmenu_109910", true); = Registered User Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 112 Rep Power: 0	Re: Mechanical Discretion = No, that's not really it... Also Williams' so-called = 'Chaos=20 Theory' isn't anything to do with nonlinear or chaotic systems as = known to=20 mathematicians. It's a simple breakout system that uses the = extrema of a=20 local trading range as reference points, plus trend = indicators.
=20	=20

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27-03-2005, 23:13

= #162

X.Oden vbmenu_register("postmenu_109992", true); =

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Re: Mechanical Discretion =

Actually William's Chaos Theory has everything to do with = Chaos=20 Theory in terms of mathematics as it utilizes fractals which = everyone=20 knows are linked to Fibonacci and Elliot Waves as well as stepped = MA's in=20 different lengths. Can't get anymore mathematical than = that.

Also,=20 breakouts occur as Fibonacci Extensions from retracements and are = part of=20 point systems in elliot waves.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rwilliams

No, that's not really=20 it...

Also Williams' so-called 'Chaos Theory' isn't = anything=20 to do with nonlinear or chaotic systems as known to = mathematicians.=20 It's a simple breakout system that uses the extrema of a = local=20 trading range as reference points, plus trend=20 indicators.

=20

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28-03-2005, 00:35	= #163
rwilliams vbmenu_register("postmenu_109996", true); = Registered User Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 112 Rep Power: 0	Re: Mechanical Discretion = You clearly don't understand what fractals are. The = 'fractals' that=20 Williams uses are simply reversal bars. Nothing to do with chaos = at all.=20 Learn some math.
=20	=20

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28-03-2005, 21:54

= #164

X.Oden vbmenu_register("postmenu_110238", true); =

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Re: Mechanical Discretion =

Sorry, but Fractals are 3rd Wiseman indicators and are used = as=20 breakouts points in the Chaos System that Bill Williams teaches.=20 Furthermore, chaos really isn't in the usage of fractals but the = time=20 divisions found in the gator indicator or any system based on = multiple=20 time frame chart usage. Reversals are signaled on a 1st Wiseman = divergence=20 bar. Why don't you enlighten me on the math portion....I could use = some=20 education because I'm obviously missing something = here...

Quote:

Originally Posted by rwilliams

You clearly don't = understand what=20 fractals are. The 'fractals' that Williams uses are simply = reversal=20 bars. Nothing to do with chaos at all. Learn some=20 math.

Last edited by X.Oden : 28-03-2005 at 22:04.=20

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03-04-2005, 19:05

Manage

DaveB =

This message has been deleted by Jetheat.=20

04-04-2005, 21:11

= #165

rwilliams vbmenu_register("postmenu_112314", true); =

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Re: Mechanical Discretion =

Quote:

Originally Posted by X.Oden

Sorry, but Fractals are = 3rd Wiseman=20 indicators and are used as breakouts points in the Chaos = System that=20 Bill Williams teaches. Furthermore, chaos really isn't in = the usage=20 of fractals but the time divisions found in the gator = indicator or=20 any system based on multiple time frame chart usage. = Reversals are=20 signaled on a 1st Wiseman divergence bar. Why don't you = enlighten me=20 on the math portion....I could use some education because = I'm=20 obviously missing something=20 here...

Nope. Nowhere = in his=20 book does he actually explain _how_ this is so. He simply states = that it=20 is so. You're mistaking the pronouncements of an 'authority' for=20 actuality.

Chaos has nothing to do with averaging a = timeseries -=20 the gator and the others are founded on various settings of moving = averages (and differences of averages). The 'fractal', as I said = is only a=20 reversal point.

Explain to me _how_ chaos comes into it, = and I'll=20 believe you - but you can't because BW never gets around to doing = it. I=20 looked though his books hoping there was some tenuous connection = that=20 showed he might not be a snake-oil merchant, but nope - never = found=20 it.

Chaos in the financial markets enters because humans = are=20 essentially chaotic - our brainwaves are fractal - i.e. if you = measure the=20 fractal dimension of the timeseries it's not an integer, and gets = more=20 fractal as we awake. Actions of groups of humans can have this = feature=20 partly because of that, and also because the combined action is a=20 non-linear system, and especially because at certain critical = points a=20 small perturbation (rumour, e.g.) can cause a large and = essentially=20 incalculable result.

The fact is that from what I could = see BW=20 never adduces any research into these kinds of systems to justify = his=20 indicator settings.

Chapter and verse, = please...
:
BTW I've=20 never said that the method doesn't work, though - maybe it does in = some=20 markets at some times (or even all markets at all times). What I'm = saying=20 is that BW picked on a sexy mathematical theme to tart up his = sales and is=20 trading on his Ph.D to get people to give him the benefit of the = doubt.=20 Dishonest in my view.

The way he brings 'chaos' into it = all is=20 like the math paper where you start both at the conclusion and the = premises and work towards the middle. When you can go no further, = you=20 simply write "It's obvious from the above that" in the middle - = i.e. a=20 weasel with no validity that nevertheless fools the = unready.

Last edited by rwilliams : 04-04-2005 at 21:43.

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05-04-2005, 00:06

= #166

X.Oden vbmenu_register("postmenu_112350", true); =

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Re: Mechanical Discretion =

Ok great, now go start trading and get rich.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rwilliams

Nope. Nowhere in his book = does he=20 actually explain _how_ this is so. He simply states that it = is so.=20 You're mistaking the pronouncements of an 'authority' for=20 actuality.

Chaos has nothing to do with averaging a=20 timeseries - the gator and the others are founded on various = settings of moving averages (and differences of averages). = The=20 'fractal', as I said is only a reversal point. =

Explain to me=20 _how_ chaos comes into it, and I'll believe you - but you = can't=20 because BW never gets around to doing it. I looked though = his books=20 hoping there was some tenuous connection that showed he = might not be=20 a snake-oil merchant, but nope - never found = it.

Chaos in the=20 financial markets enters because humans are essentially = chaotic -=20 our brainwaves are fractal - i.e. if you measure the fractal = dimension of the timeseries it's not an integer, and gets = more=20 fractal as we awake. Actions of groups of humans can have = this=20 feature partly because of that, and also because the = combined action=20 is a non-linear system, and especially because at certain = critical=20 points a small perturbation (rumour, e.g.) can cause a large = and=20 essentially incalculable result.

The fact is that = from what=20 I could see BW never adduces any research into these kinds = of=20 systems to justify his indicator settings.

Chapter = and verse,=20 please...
:
BTW I've never said that the method = doesn't work,=20 though - maybe it does in some markets at some times (or = even all=20 markets at all times). What I'm saying is that BW picked on = a sexy=20 mathematical theme to tart up his sales and is trading on = his Ph.D=20 to get people to give him the benefit of the doubt. = Dishonest in my=20 view.

The way he brings 'chaos' into it all is like = the math=20 paper where you start both at the conclusion and the = premises and=20 work towards the middle. When you can go no further, you = simply=20 write "It's obvious from the above that" in the middle - = i.e. a=20 weasel with no validity that nevertheless fools the=20 unready.

=20

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05-04-2005, 01:57

= #167

rwilliams vbmenu_register("postmenu_112363", true); =

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Re: Mechanical Discretion =

Quote:

Originally Posted by X.Oden

Ok great, now go start = trading and=20 get rich.

I = increased my=20 account by 8% in the last week and a half. 13% in the last two = months.=20

Go _start_ trading???

=20

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05-04-2005, 09:18

= #168

X.Oden vbmenu_register("postmenu_112418", true); =

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Re: Mechanical Discretion =

Good for you. Congrats.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rwilliams

I increased my account by = 8% in the=20 last week and a half. 13% in the last two months.

Go = _start_=20 trading???

=20

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